Season Win Projections Week 10

Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. As before, projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP). The projections account for future opponent strength, and total wins account for current and projected wins. Methodology is described here.













































TeamRankProj GWPFut OppProj W
AFC E
NE1

0.910.5015.4
BUF17

0.400.577.8
NYJ280.220.602.6
MIA270.260.561.9
AFC N
PIT4

0.810.4612.7
CLE20

0.550.388.8
CIN160.560.416.9
BAL220.260.645.8
AFC S
IND2

0.920.4213.4
JAX9

0.580.5310.0
TEN110.570.4910.0
HOU180.360.596.5
AFC W
SD130.610.429.3
DEN15

0.580.408.1
KC26

0.360.486.5
OAK31

0.160.563.1
TeamRankProj GWPFut OppProj W
NFC E
DAL3

0.880.4814.1
NYG8

0.610.5110.3
WAS120.420.627.9
PHI100.490.607.5
NFC N
GB7

0.740.3713.2
DET

25



0.290.588.0

MIN14

0.610.377.3

CHI300.200.545.4
NFC S
TB5

0.850.3910.9
NO230.410.476.9
CAR240.300.586.1
ATL19

0.340.595.4
NFC W
SEA6

0.760.3810.3
ARI21

0.510.397.6
SF320.190.453.4
STL29

0.220.512.6

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2 Responses to “Season Win Projections Week 10”

  1. coldbikemessenger says:

    I have a question.
    Obviously net yards per pass is a key stat.
    Lets say two teams are exactly the same.
    Team A gives up virtually no sacks but really doesn't rack up the passing yards.
    Team B gives up a ton of sacks but has this bombs away passing attack that makes up for it.
    which team do you think would be better, or would they both be the same?
    I have always suspected the team that gave up fewer sacks would but I have no evidence either way.
    Have you looked at this before and maybe I missed it?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    That's an interesting question. I guess it's a question of the chain movers vs the high risk/reward offenses. Holmgren/Reid vs. Martz.

    I've got the team data to try to study it, but the problem is that total passing yards stats include YAC, so how deep a team's passes are aren't knowable.

    You might think that YAC is relatively proportional to total pass yards, but teams vary greatly.
    The Packers this year get a whopping 53% of their yds from YAC, compared to 35% for the Colts. That's a big difference.

    Unfortunately I only have data like that for the top 40 or so QBs and not for teams, and only for this season. So without more data, it would be hard to say.

    My gut would say that it depends on the teams' defense. If both teams had a good defense, the high-risk/reward team would score more TDs, because they don't need so many consecutive 1st downs. A big sack on 2nd down puts you at 3rd and very long, and a sack on 3rd down forces a kick.

    If both teams had an average or below average defense, they team with fewer sacks but shorter passes would probably prevail. They would have the better chance of moving the chains. But that's just a hunch.

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