Before the 2007 NFL season Detroit quarterback Jon Kitna predicted the Lions would win more than 10 games. Surprising many fans this year, DET has managed to put together a 6-2 record and the Lion's prospect of winning 10 or more games is realistic.
Based on their offensive and defensive efficiency stats to-date, they are ranked 15th in the NFL with a 0.47 generic win probability (GWP). Although they are 6-2, they have faced the 3rd easiest schedule so far, with their opponents averaging a 0.41 GWP.
And although Martz's offensive scheme and the Lions' receiving corps receives most of the attention, their offense has been below average (0.40 GWP) while their defense has been the stronger squad (0.54 GWP). Although DET's running and passing efficiencies are roughly average across the board, the offense has suffered from an above average fumble rate and the defense has benefited from an above average interception rate.
Detroit's upcoming opponents and the probabilities of winning each game are listed in the table below. Their prospective strength of schedule is exactly average, with a GWP of 0.50.
After crunching the numbers, the likelihood of finishing the season at each possible record is illustrated in the table below by the bar graph (the probability of winning exactly that many games). The cumulative probability is the curved line with its scale on the right (the probability of winning at least x games.) [Note: the GB game could be much easier assuming GB has clinched a playoff birth.]
It looks just as likely that DET would finish with 9 or fewer wins as 10 or more. It's very close. If they continue to play at their current level, there is even an outside chance they can win 12 games, but 7 wins is equally as likely as 12. The table below summarizes the probabilities of finishing with each possible number of wins and the cumulative probability of winning at least that many wins.