Game Predictions Week 12

Game probabilities for week 11 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Games in which the model disagrees with consensus favorites are highlighted in red.





















VprobVisitorHomeHprob
0.70GBDET0.30
0.06NYJDAL0.94
0.86INDATL0.14
0.27BUFJAX0.73
0.71DENCHI0.29
0.42HOUCLE0.58
0.31MINNYG0.69
0.37NOCAR0.63
0.21OAKKC0.79
0.78SEASTL0.22
0.48TENCIN0.52
0.19WASTB0.81
0.18SFARI0.82
0.25BALSD0.75
0.09PHINE0.91
0.14MIAPIT0.86


I wouldn't put too much stock in the NO-CAR probability. The QB/WR injury situation in CAR needs to be watched, and NO has been so inconsistent.

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2 Responses to “Game Predictions Week 12”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Dear Mr. Burke,

    3-0 (ATS!) So far...

    Like I said, when it comes to the NFL, if you pick winners, you pick ATS winners. Most of the time anyway...

    Keep it up!

  2. Keith Rosenkranz says:

    Thanks to Brian's hard work, I am moving up rapidly in my NFL pool competition. I was in the top five each of the past two weeks. Thank you Brian!!!

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