Game Predictions Week 11

Game probabilities for week 11 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength. Games in which the model disagrees with consensus favorites are highlighted in red.


It seems as if the consensus favorites and the mathematical models have converged. Only one game difference between them the past two weeks. I would not be confident in the Baltimore prediction without knowing the injury status of their secondary. Without a healthy McAlister, Rolle, and Reed, I don't see how they could be the favorite.

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7 Responses to “Game Predictions Week 11”

  1. 24frames says:

    I don't know if this can be used for anything, or if you have done something similar yourself, but maybe you can add together all the home percentages through these 2 seasons that you have predicted games, and then see how many games were actually won at home and then do the same for the away games.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Mr. Burke,

    Cleveland is on the road, but Det is home. They are both on long home winning streaks. Det has NOT lost at home even once this year. Definitely a Jekyl/Hide story which, if not acccounted for, will DEFINITELY screw with the model. lol!

    I'm staying off the Det game for that reason...

  3. Brian Burke says:

    24frames-Well, I am working on an analysis of home field advantage. Maybe I don't understand your point, but over the past 5 years the home team wins 57.5% of the time.

    Anon-DET enjoys home field advantage like other teams, but they're just not that good--perhaps a little above average. They could pull an upset Sunday, but their remaining schedule looks pretty tough. The Giants game is very important if the Lions want to compete for a wildcard.

  4. 24frames says:

    Yeah, I was basically asking how many games were actually won at home, and how many games you predicted to be won at home.

  5. Brian Burke says:

    Ok, I see. The home team is favored by the model in just over 60% of the games this year, including all past and future games. This would indicate one of two things. The stronger teams have had more home games so far this year, or the model is biased. But if I make a theoretical league-average team play itself, the home team is favored at exactly 0.575, so hopefully the model is correctly tuned.

  6. Anonymous says:

    EXCELENT job.

    You even got the Lions right.
    Their FIRST loss at home.
    Did decently ats as well.

    I'm feeling some momentum :)

  7. Anonymous says:

    Dear Mr. Burke,

    You went 13-2 straight up and

    9-5 ATS

    Very good.

    Ps I left MNF out as it was a 50:50 call.

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