Week 6 Efficiency Rankings

Team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered strength of schedule. The adjusted GWP (Adj GWP) modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of to-date opponents. OGWP is each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DGWP is vice-versa. To-date average opponent GWP is also listed. Rankings are based on data through week 6. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.




































TeamRankLast WkGWPOGWPDGWPOpp GWP
NE110.890.790.720.49
IND220.890.800.640.53
TB380.820.660.610.49
DAL440.760.740.590.44
NYG530.720.750.680.56
PIT6100.720.620.630.41
JAX760.710.760.500.51
WAS850.700.490.830.51
DEN9110.680.660.540.55
PHI1090.670.740.600.52
SS1170.660.660.520.49
TEN12120.610.340.780.59
CIN13160.600.650.560.62
SD14180.600.670.510.52
GB15150.560.560.640.56
HOU16140.550.640.520.55
CLE17260.530.620.400.56
KC18190.520.410.610.50
BUF19200.460.410.570.69
ATL20220.440.510.510.57
MIN21210.430.510.490.40
CAR22240.410.530.540.42
ARI23130.410.550.550.49
NYJ24270.400.500.360.56
BAL25230.400.410.660.36
MIA26170.370.610.340.52
DET27290.360.320.480.49
NO28310.340.490.340.68
OAK29250.320.280.520.48
SF30280.260.250.500.52
STL31300.250.360.470.55
CHI32320.250.320.440.55

  • Spread The Love
  • Digg This Post
  • Tweet This Post
  • Stumble This Post
  • Submit This Post To Delicious
  • Submit This Post To Reddit
  • Submit This Post To Mixx

2 Responses to “Week 6 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. coldbikemessenger says:

    Interesting that you have GB so low.
    A 5-1 team middle of the pack.
    It has long been my belief that teams that pass 70% of the time are doomed.
    1. The negative plays add up, the incompletes and sacks are gonna get ya
    2. I think if you pass that often, either your passing game isn't that effective, or you are just scraping by.
    So I tend to agree with your ranking.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    I agree for the most part. But a lot of those passes are 3-step-drop quick timing passes that don't often end up in sacks or interceptions. They're passing game is almost exactly average and their running game is decidedly below average on a per-attempt basis.

    Teams like this and others such as PHI, who rely on short passes as a substitute for running, might defy my model which separates passing and running ability. It might be better to just go with an overall "yards per play" model.

    GB is probably a slightly above average team in a division (and a conference) without any dominant teams. So they have a good shot at the playoffs, but I doubt they'd make it very far. I just hope Favre keeps doing well. He's been my fantasy starter ever since Bulger went bust.

Leave a Reply