Week 5 Efficiency Rankings

Team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered strength of schedule. The adjusted GWP (Adj GWP) modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of to-date opponents. Rankings are based on data through week 5. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.




































TeamRankLast WkAdj GWPOpp GWP
NE140.920.36
IND210.900.47
NYG380.820.72
DAL450.820.34
WAS5120.810.56
JAX670.760.54
SEA730.730.53
TB860.730.33
PHI990.700.58
PIT10110.700.34
DEN1120.700.58
TEN12100.690.57
ARI13130.620.55
HOU14150.610.55
GB15160.600.54
CIN16140.600.60
MIA17180.470.59
SD18290.470.55
KC19170.430.39
BUF20220.430.67
MIN21190.400.45
ATL22250.400.53
BAL23240.370.41
CAR24270.360.49
OAK25210.340.41
CLE26230.340.55
NYJ27280.280.52
SF28300.260.57
DET29200.250.41
STL30310.240.58
NO31260.230.79
CHI32320.160.55

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2 Responses to “Week 5 Efficiency Rankings”

  1. Jon M says:

    In anticipation of this week's game predictions, two possible upsets appear to be #17 MIA at #26 CLE (-4.5) and #5 WAS at #15 GB (-3).

    The USA Today computer has the Skins covering but not winning (GB by 2.04), but has Cleveland favored by 6.4.

  2. Brian Burke says:

    My model doesn't take into account sudden QB changes, such as Trent Green being replaced by Cleo Lemon.

    I've already got it as practically a toss-up--a 52/48 game. So with Green out, Cleveland should almost certainly be the true favorite.

    But I'm not going to manually adjust the model. I'll just say that Mia is underrated, and their record has suffered from some bad luck so far.

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