QB Wins Added 2

In the last post, I began constructing a passer rating system that, to the greatest degree possible, includes performance variables controlled by the quarterback alone and avoids redundant use of variables that measure the same attribute.

The new system includes completion percentage, interception rate, and sack yards per attempt. The previous post discussed completion percentage, and this one will cover interception rate. Each QB's stats are computed in terms of how many wins they add, on average, to his team over the course of a season.

While most fans and analysts consider how many inteptions a QB has thrown, they ignore the fact that various QBs have a wide range of passing attempts, even among QBs with the same number of games played. Interceptions per pass attempt is a better indicator of a QB's true tendency to throw interceptions.

The table below ranks QB's interception rates in 2006. Only QBs with over 100 pass attempts are included. Theh column labled "Int Rate > Avg" is the amount above (or below) the average NFL interception rate. Negative numbers are better here because they mean fewer interceptions per attempt. The column labled "Int Rate Wins" are the wins added (or lost) due to the interception rate of the listed QB. Postive numbers are (obviously) better here. The added wins are computed by the efficiency win model Ipreviously established.

PlayerInt RateInt Rate >

Int Rate Wins
Damon Huard0.004-0.0271.385
Jeff Garcia0.011-0.0211.060
Marc Bulger0.013-0.0180.913
Mark Brunell0.015-0.0160.826
Peyton Manning0.016-0.0160.788
Donovan McNabb0.019-0.0130.650
Philip Rivers0.019-0.0120.622
Tim Rattay0.019-0.0120.611
Drew Brees0.019-0.0120.608
Daunte Culpepper0.022-0.0100.485
Tom Brady0.023-0.0090.443
Carson Palmer0.024-0.0070.360
Jake Delhomme0.025-0.0070.334
Steve McNair0.025-0.0070.329
David Carr0.026-0.0050.256
Byron Leftwich0.027-0.0050.248
Bruce Gradkowski0.027-0.0050.243
Jason Campbell0.028-0.0030.169
Brett Favre0.029-0.0030.151
Kurt Warner0.029-0.0030.132
Matt Leinart0.031-0.0010.033
J.P. Losman0.0320.000-0.005
Chad Pennington0.0320.000-0.022
Michael Vick0.0320.001-0.046
Brad Johnson0.0330.002-0.077
Eli Manning0.0330.002-0.092
Alex Smith0.0350.003-0.173
Vince Young0.0350.004-0.183
Jay Cutler0.0350.004-0.187
Jon Kitna0.0360.004-0.207
David Garrard0.0360.004-0.227
Tony Romo0.0370.006-0.284
Joey Harrington0.0370.006-0.288
Matt Hasselbeck0.0390.007-0.371
Jake Plummer0.0390.008-0.398
Rex Grossman0.0400.008-0.429
Aaron Brooks0.0400.008-0.429
Charlie Frye0.0420.010-0.508
Trent Green0.0430.012-0.604
Andrew Walter0.0450.013-0.680
Drew Bledsoe0.0450.014-0.691
Ben Roethlisberger0.0470.015-0.770
Seneca Wallace0.0470.016-0.797
Chris Simms0.0620.030-1.537
Derek Anderson0.0640.032-1.641

In the next post, I'll look at sacks. Then finally, I'll pull it all together for a comprehensive QB win-rating.

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3 Responses to “QB Wins Added 2”

  1. coldbikemessenger says:

    you lost me.
    I just ran your new formula in excel and the Colts suck.
    What am I doing wrong?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Yes, the Colts will forever suck, no matter how many Super Bowls they win. (I'm from Baltimore.)

    Just make sure you are using completion percent like this "64.5," and not this "0.645." That's probably why they came up with so few added wins.

    But, I also made a couple typos when writing the post. The components for interception rate and sack rate should be subtracted and not added. Obviously, sacks and interceptions are bad--sorry. It's now been corrected.

  3. Brian Burke says:

    Yes. I'd like to include "air" yards per attempt. In other words, passing yards minus yards after catch. Otherwise, we'd be crediting the QB for his WRs' performance.

    Unfortunately, YAC stats (by QB) are not easily obtainable. I'm still looking for them.

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